Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am long every stock mentioned in this post (Image credit to Jack Ansty on Unsplash)
They say that markets climb the Wall of Worry, but hand-wringing has never been much of an investment strategy.
I’ve been intentionally quiet. Mostly because there are a lot of crosscurrents out there, but also because sometimes there’s just not a lot new to say. Markets go up, markets go down, and when I started writing this note weeks ago, most commodity stocks were at higher levels — so much so that I stopped writing for a while because I felt a pullback would make for a better time to talk about longer-term names and themes that I like regardless of the broader market tape. The CEO of CPP, John Graham suggests that the 2020’s will be “the decade of alpha“, where just owning “the market” won’t work the way it used to… Translation: investors will get paid for being right, as opposed to just being there.
To that end, I strongly suggest that readers take the time to watch this presentation by Mark Mills (click here to link to the Youtube video) on some hard truths about the “energy transition” that gets so much press these days. Seriously, take the time to watch it — remembering that an investor is only as good as the ideas that they can generate within the context of the information with which they are presented. I think this Mark Mills talk should be mandatory viewing for the entire population, as it realllllly lays out what the reality of the energy transition looks like in physical material and energy terms. In forty minutes, Mr. Mills makes clear, simple, and well-supported arguments that will leave you with some very clear conclusions, including: